They are today the cost across the country

The enthusiasm the day before by the slight rebound in industrial production was of short duration. Sales, both feared, a fall of 4 of GDP from January to March of the world's second economy was confirmed by the Government bringing extrapolation on an annual basis, to 15.2. The never-seen since the end of the second world war. As a comparison, the United States recorded a decrease of 1.6 of GDP in the first quarter and 6.1 in annualized. To the euro zone, its economy contracted by 2.5.

The violence with which the recession is installed to the Japan will certainly require to review the policies of growth. That judge: twelve months completed on 31 March, GDP officially fell by 3.5. Extremely affected, the Japan is mainly by exports which have again plunged 26 during the period from January to March. Helped by the weakness of the yen, it is they who, until in 2008, have provided more than 50 of the growth of the archipelago. And, despite that they fall to less than 20 in the GDP formation. This decidedly exporting policy from one country to the aging population today produced catastrophic effects. Because the Japan cannot rely on the consumption of households, in the first quarter, fell by 1.1, after 0.8 in the course of the previous quarter, to support its economy. Now, while all the big companies fell into the red and implemented drastic plans to reduce their costs, no rally nor is expected investment spending that plunged 10.4, more than 6.7 of the last quarter of 2008. Many companies have announced cut spending in R & D and do not engage in investment programmes. "The decline in capital spending and household consumption suggests that the negative impact of the fall of exports is spread to domestic demand", said Hiroshi Shiraishi, Economist for BNP Paribas. "These data reflect the seriousness of the economic situation", Takeo Kawamura, General Secretary of the cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso said yesterday. Person among the private experts or Government forecasters expected today of actual recovery. For many, the economy has certainly touched the bottom and will remain so for several months. At the time, the forecast for the second quarter are already state new likely of some 3 decline, pending the early effects of stimulus. They should not be felt before July, say experts. In fact, on four announced plans, only the latter is really so and will not be in place before June, the budget supplement being put to the vote of the Parliament.

It will take much time

Prior to this, a few ups and downs can be seen from exports and domestic activity, as was the case in May with the industrial production ("Les Echos" from May 20, 2009).

Without naïve optimism, policies such as Kaoru Yosano, Finance Minister, already warn that "it will take much time and create many problems in the Japan to find the growth experienced in recent years". The Central Bank believes that the contraction of GDP should reach 3.1 this year, and then to recover 1.2 at end of March 2011. Especially, the extent of this crisis must be aware that Japanese politicians that they can no longer make economic structural reforms. For six years, they have not modernized the country and favourite take advantage of growth through exports. They are today the cost across the country.