To close at 10475 euros an increase of 2

If the 2008 results are even better than expected, with record sales of Airbus, Eurocopter and Astrium, 2009 will be more difficult for EADS. And 2010 promises to be even more wrong. The operating (Ebit) income of 2.8 billion euros last year swollen by exceptional of 900 million euros exchange gain, should indeed decline this year, said yesterday the defence and aeronautics Group Executive Chairman, Louis Gallois. Subject: the combined effects of the increase in expenditure of research and development, deterioration of exchange rates, increased customer financing and, above all, the general decline in the price of the aircraft. However, turnover should remain $ 43.3 billion euros as well as the number of deliveries of Airbus (483 in 2008).

Despite the decrease in traffic, airlines have indeed not interest to denounce their orders to too short term, on pain of severe penalties. Hence the very small number of cancellations, a dozen in January recorded so far. But, more long term, the cancellations and order reports should increase. Airbus has anticipated by reducing the production rates, limiting to 34 A320 family (A320) and 8.5 another (A330) per month beginning in October. Declining pace inevitably translates into a decline in shipments, and therefore, the turnover of the aircraft manufacturer in 2010, and perhaps beyond if the crisis came in last.

"2010 will be a crucial year for us," acknowledged Louis Gallois. "The crisis will probably not stop end of 2009 and the aviation industry is often slower to react." Even in the face of strong recovery, should be in effect between four and five months to Airbus to increase the production of the A320, and six to seven months for the A330.

A400M: negotiations in April

The main black spot remains the A400M transport aircraft, which delays already cost some EUR 2 billion to EADS. Lack of power yet to quantify the risks associated with the new abuses of the program ("Les Echos" from Monday), EADS did as expected "that" 363 million additional burdens on the fourth quarter of 2008. I.e. a total of 704 million on the year. But, as recognized by its Chief Financial Officer, Hans Peter Ring, this number "does not reflect all of the losses", which may be encrypted once known the response of client States in the renegotiation of the contract proposals made by EADS.

New charges are expected for 2009, even if Louis Gallois does not want to believe the worst: pure and simple cancellation by Occar, the organisation representing the client States of this contract of 20 billion euros. Theoretically possible effective March 30, such a decision would, under the leadership of EADS, a net loss of EUR 5.7 billion.

Even if it is still not able to commit to the date of the first flight, which is not even acquired for 2009, and still less that of the first deliveries, Louis Gallois was hopeful of reaching an agreement with four major clients of the A400M, France, Spain, Germany and United Kingdom. "No State has yet taken firm position", he says. Negotiations with the States are expected to start in April and may however last, Governments seeking indeed guarantees not only on the progress of the program, but, above all, on the date on which they may have not one, but several aircraft.

Moreover, the pattern of EADS also said progress in discussions with the engine. Elements that do not have enough to reassure the stock market. Despite its good results, the EADS title was at the top of the drops of the CAC 40 in middle of day. To close at 10,475 euros, an increase of 2.75.