This posed this bankruptcy came too late

September 15, 2008, the sky fell us on the head. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has precipitated the world in economic and financial chaos: dewatering of interbank liquidity, stock market debacle, bankruptcy cascade, explosion of unemployment... I am one of the few economists to consider, however, that this bankruptcy was salutary (). Because she did finally realize politicians of the seriousness of the crisis. Indisputable progress has thus been made "Thanks" to this development in bankruptcy. The g-20 meetings, the strengthening of the IMF, a start to the control of tax havens, a primer of regulation of the remuneration of the "traders": none of these reforms, unimaginable a few months previously, would have been the day without the challenge of the "moral hazard" that operated this resounding put into liquidation. It struck down the notion that banks were insured certain impunity from the time when they were too big to be left down.

This posed, this bankruptcy came too late. It must eventually be convinced: this crisis is not only a financial crisis. It is, fundamentally, a crisis of the "real" economy, that deregulated finance has made that amplify. The origin of the crisis are three major imbalances (which are obviously interrelated): a slow but irreversible deindustrialization of the countries of the North, an imbalance of savings between the US - save too little - and the emerging countries - who save too - and a requirement for return on capital that "grows in the crime." And on these root causes of the crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman, of course, had no effect.

That finds a year after this drama "Business as usual", that is the watchword. "The crisis is over.""traders" can get back to "trader", "hedge funds" to "hedged", and Goldman Sachs bonuses to to "improve", as if it had nothing including salutary warning sent to the planet Finance by Lehman. Nothing, or almost, has been done in the revision of accounting standards (IAS) and prudential (Basel II and Solvency II), which are all basically pro-cyclical (with Solvency II, it is even done ban insurers who have vocation to keep long their investment to invest in shares). Nothing more was done for regulation of credit rating agencies (more that never disentangle in of insoluble conflicts of interest), "hedge funds" (which is not the cause of the crisis but which are still as opaque) or market OTC (representing 90 of derivatives markets and always escape any real centralization). There is also coordination of fiscal policies. Those should be evidence of Temperance - such as the United States - continuing to create liquidity, while those who should be extravagance - as the Germany - continuing to play "stowaways", benefiting expenditures made by other States for their economy. Nothing, finally, in the fight against protectionism, while world trade will decrease by 10 in 2009 and Pascal Lamy, the patron of the WTO, said more and more worried.

Can even be considered that, on certain points, have been reverse. Because it is a new fracture that is is dug, in the past months between the finance Anglo-Saxon, more self-confident, and the rest of the world. America or England parties thus are resisting therefore it is question of financial regulation. "Not go to my friends" of Wall Street and the City! But this new fracture is carrier of all "glaciation" regulatory. On the eve of the G20 in Pittsburgh, it is time to make our collective review of conscience: If we do not quickly the necessary reforms, tens of Lehman ahead.