Bush tax for the class average beyond 2010

Re-entry will be ungrateful for Obama reformer. While he thought it could address these legislative mid-term elections with all of the success of its reform of the health care system and of its "rebate to be" Wall Street not to mention the punishment with BP - doubt settled. And if the recovery of the democratic administration plan proved to be insufficient And if it was never out of the recession, as the proclaims the Nobel Prize in economics, Paul Krugman Sixty-three days of the November 2 election, both expected rebound does not meet. On the contrary, the spectrum of the "double dip" or a lost decade "in the Japanese" plane on the US economy, drowned in thick fog. Even more than the reality of the indices, not necessarily very remote expectations, it is the insidious installation of a climate of turmoil that threatens to ruin the re-entry of the White House.

"The prospect of high long-term unemployment remains a central issue of concern," acknowledged the President of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, Jackson Hole, recalling the limits of monetary policy. According to the Act of Okun (from the name of the American economist Arthur Okun), without a minimum growth of 2, it does not jobs. However, after the disappointing sales of the second quarter (1.6), according to the consensus of analysts, US GDP growth will not exceed, at best, 1 to 1.5 in the second half. Certainly, no one was really to a significant decrease of unemployment before 2011. "But the unexpected decline of the recovery and persistent lethargy of the Barack Obama market has failed to restore confidence in the economy," said the "newsweek" columnist, Michael Hirsh, brocardant "Old Deal of Obama". In fact, according to the latest AP - GFK poll released August 18, only 41 of Americans now approve the management of the economy of the Democratic President, compared with 56 of malcontents, although his personal popularity rating remains relatively high (49) to mid-term. Not only the doubt settles on the real scope of the $ 787 billion fiscal stimulus plan launched in March 2009 - "too modest", repeat Paul Krugman for several months-, but the credibility of his economic team co-led by Larry Summers and Tim Geithner is also disputed. They are too prone to Wall Street and to eliminate the "rough" aspects of the "Volcker device", in the eyes of a part of the democratic supporters. Even if the White House succeeded in completing its Wall Street reform in July, many analysts see still at best a modest framework for the excesses of Wall Street, the worst blow of the sword in the water.

With the downturn in the recovery, the White House has not yet launched very audible signal. It was still two months to restore confidence and seek to maintain its majority in Congress on November 2. It is the backup of his "political capital" to continue the reforms. In 1994, two years after the victory of Bill Clinton, Republicans had regained the majority in Congress, for the first time in forty years, winning 52 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. This time, they would resume 40 seats in the House and 8 to 10 in the Senate. Paradoxically, to avoid such "humiliation", George w. Bush tax for the class average beyond 2010. But it is not said that he began not a "clintoniste turn" to better ensure its rear in 2012.