The first for a continuation of the increase

Finally! After days of hesitation, the CAC 40 has crossed the threshold of 4,000 points and reconnected with his level of early October 2008. The index climbed yesterday of 1.97, to 4.013,97 points. And starting on hats wheel a year that is, for analysts, even beneficial. See. Because, "forecasts are difficult, especially when they relate to the future", used to quip that the humorist Pierre Dac. And, market matters, it is true. It is sufficient to hear the managers characterize the vintage 2009: "surprising". Not therefore surprising to see defeating most of the predictions of the end of 2008.

A year ago, analysts were well kept to be too optimistic. For cause, at the height of the storm, the visibility was missing to the exercise of the forecast. Experts were considering all similarly a rising measured and a CAC 40 between 3.200 and 3.800 points in their large majority. He finished at 3.936,33 points, 22,32 over a year. And yet, there is a failure in the first quarter; the index then hit a low point, at 2.519,29 points, on 9 March. A stage, a purge, which proved necessary to better engage the rebound. For the 2010 vintage, everyone is not too give to optimism, despite the fantastic ride of the last nine months. Caution is required. Some analysts envi sagent service 20, but the consensus emerges between 5 and 10. Others show a negative score, but they had based their guesswork, earlier in December, on a CAC 40 much lower that it was in the end.

"Year of standardization".

More that the figures referred to, it is interesting to dive into the vast literature accompanying this forecasting exercise. Two time are defined: the first and the second half, to keep it simple. The first for a continuation of the increase. The second for the harvest of benefit. The first is for a status quo of central banks. The second for a tightening of monetary policy.

Large institutions will therefore have an important role. "It is possible to consider the continuation of the upward movement if central banks know communicate and manage their change in monetary policy," noted Frédéric Buzaré, responsible for the management shares in Dexia Asset Management, in his study "2010 the year of all the dangers." Ben Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet, the Presidents of major banks, walk on eggs, between inflation that attempts to return to the front of the stage and an economic recovery still fragile. Jean Danjou, Director of strategy of Oddo Securities, "2010 should be a year of standardization with the confirmation of a return to modest but positive growth and the beginning of adjustment to the rates increase which should affect the whole of the curve". Groupama Asset Management, the Federal Reserve may need to act at the end of the first quarter, while the European Central Bank (ECB) poor at the end of the summer.

This lag in time could lead to an inflation of the dollar against the euro, which would be beneficial to European exporters. An idea for investment that could play the investors. Because, unlike last year, whose performance was supported by a rehabilitation of markets, 2010 would be placed under the sign of the "stock picking", buying the case by case basis. "Shares will still increase in 2010, but it is suspected that the rally will be a different character which led the market in 2009, a year whose performance was purely macro. "In 2010, we believe that emphasis will be put on the microphone, with themes within which the market will take its dimension," explained Nomura teams. The choice will then focus on the values of growth, in addition to quality, which are still sous-valorisées by investors.

In this season of the annual results, which will be published from this month, will give the tone to the suite. The low rates, therefore, compensation for the monetary investments and bond, it is not excluded that investors use their cash to buy securities that serve as a good dividend and therefore offer an attractive returns. As analysts expect a significant growth of profits per share in 2010. 20 for the Nomura expert.

The mergers and acquisitions could also animate the markets, like the values exposed to emerging countries currently have the wind in its sails. In the end, the year promises to reserve surprises and may not have the expected results.